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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Penn State University0.27+4.83vs Predicted
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2Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+6.38vs Predicted
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3Virginia Tech0.67+1.23vs Predicted
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4Princeton University-0.57+4.13vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.19+1.54vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.50-0.99vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.60-2.16vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.44-2.60vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University0.19-3.16vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.21-2.56vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-0.93-1.02vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-1.34-1.60vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.60-2.38vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-2.27-1.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83Penn State University0.278.9%1st Place
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8.38Rochester Institute of Technology-0.644.5%1st Place
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4.23Virginia Tech0.6716.4%1st Place
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8.13Princeton University-0.574.4%1st Place
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6.54Washington College0.198.5%1st Place
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5.01SUNY Maritime College0.5013.5%1st Place
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4.84Christopher Newport University0.6012.6%1st Place
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5.4Columbia University0.4411.7%1st Place
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5.84Syracuse University0.198.8%1st Place
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7.44William and Mary-0.214.8%1st Place
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9.98Drexel University-0.932.1%1st Place
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10.4Rutgers University-1.342.1%1st Place
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10.62SUNY Stony Brook-0.601.6%1st Place
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12.36U. S. Military Academy-2.270.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Murphy | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kayla Maguire | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 2.9% |
| James Lilyquist | 16.4% | 16.9% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 13.5% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 12.6% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 11.7% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Alexa Whitman | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Nathaniel Adams | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 15.5% | 17.8% | 10.2% |
| Andrew Martin | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 20.8% | 13.8% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 22.1% | 16.2% |
| Sarra Salah | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 52.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.