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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.52+5.28vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.05+5.92vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+1.51vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.73+1.35vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University3.36+1.56vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.91-1.09vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University3.26-0.03vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.58+1.33vs Predicted
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9University of Connecticut1.96+2.74vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.32+0.62vs Predicted
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11Wesleyan University1.49+2.43vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire1.52+1.58vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.56-3.60vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.11-3.08vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy1.38-1.31vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.93-7.78vs Predicted
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17Middlebury College1.53-3.71vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.12-4.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.28Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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7.92University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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4.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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5.35Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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6.56Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
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4.91Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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6.97Northeastern University3.260.1%1st Place
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9.33University of Vermont2.580.0%1st Place
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11.74University of Connecticut1.960.0%1st Place
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10.62Boston University2.320.0%1st Place
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13.43Wesleyan University1.490.0%1st Place
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13.58University of New Hampshire1.520.0%1st Place
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9.4Brown University2.560.0%1st Place
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10.92Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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13.69Maine Maritime Academy1.380.0%1st Place
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8.22Connecticut College2.930.1%1st Place
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13.29Middlebury College1.530.0%1st Place
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14.28Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Croteau | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Avery Fanning | 14.3% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 12.6% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Carney | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 14.6% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Adam Ceely | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Michael Rottier | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| Ian Paice | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Molly Haley | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 15.4% |
| Will Humphrey | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 17.8% |
| Timothy Harding | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.7% |
| Andrew McHenry | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 16.9% |
| Gabriel Salk | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Sean Willerford | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 13.4% |
| Karl Ryder | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 17.0% | 23.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.