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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.74+6.94vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.71+6.06vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.41+2.50vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.00+2.70vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.51+3.57vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.82+1.49vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+1.21vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.23-2.05vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College1.35+3.76vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University2.54-1.24vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.84-3.45vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire1.35+1.00vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.62-4.92vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.87-6.97vs Predicted
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15Wesleyan University1.45-2.63vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy2.03-5.48vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut0.07-0.99vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.40-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.94Bowdoin College2.740.1%1st Place
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8.06Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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5.5Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.7Boston University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.57University of Vermont2.510.1%1st Place
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7.49Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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8.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.1%1st Place
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5.95Connecticut College3.230.1%1st Place
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12.76Middlebury College1.350.0%1st Place
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8.76Salve Regina University2.540.1%1st Place
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7.55Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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13.0University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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8.08Roger Williams University2.620.1%1st Place
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7.03Brown University2.870.1%1st Place
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12.37Wesleyan University1.450.0%1st Place
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10.52Maine Maritime Academy2.030.0%1st Place
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16.01University of Connecticut0.070.0%1st Place
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16.5Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Peabody | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Nunn | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 11.0% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Fraser | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry O'Brien | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Schmitz | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kayla Ellis | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Bryce Kopp | 11.6% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Terry Duncan | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 18.5% | 11.2% | 3.1% |
| Robert Lippincott | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Conor Lodge | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| William Dykes | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 19.7% | 12.9% | 4.7% |
| A. Tucker Atterbury | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Kelly McGlynn | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lewis Fowler-Gerace | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 10.8% | 2.4% |
| Hollister Poole | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Lyndsay Stockwell | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 32.1% | 35.4% |
| Francis Dougherty | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 7.5% | 24.0% | 52.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.