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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.79+2.55vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.35+5.31vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University0.66+3.56vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.08+0.74vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.30-0.61vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-0.10vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.90-1.24vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.40+1.46vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.25+0.84vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-1.49vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.19-2.54vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.41-0.01vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-3.44vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.22-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.55University of California at Los Angeles1.7922.6%1st Place
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7.31University of California at Berkeley0.355.1%1st Place
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6.56Arizona State University0.667.8%1st Place
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4.74University of California at San Diego-0.0812.2%1st Place
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4.39University of California at Los Angeles1.3014.5%1st Place
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5.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.138.6%1st Place
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5.76University of Southern California0.9010.2%1st Place
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9.46University of California at Santa Cruz-0.403.4%1st Place
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9.84University of California at Berkeley-0.252.3%1st Place
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8.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.263.5%1st Place
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8.46University of California at Davis-0.194.1%1st Place
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11.99University of California at San Diego-1.410.9%1st Place
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9.56University of California at Los Angeles-0.232.5%1st Place
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8.98University of California at Berkeley-0.222.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Janov | 22.6% | 19.9% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Cremers | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Matt Grimsley | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 12.2% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 14.5% | 14.9% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kai Ponting | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 9.8% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 17.1% | 12.6% |
| Florence Duff | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 5.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 4.1% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 49.7% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 10.0% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.