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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.47vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.90+3.76vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+2.88vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.35+3.42vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.79-1.40vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+2.42vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.08-2.27vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.40+1.54vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.25+0.91vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.41+2.01vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.66-4.60vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.22-3.14vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-3.49vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.19-5.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47University of California at Los Angeles1.3014.4%1st Place
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5.76University of Southern California0.908.6%1st Place
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5.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.138.8%1st Place
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7.42University of California at Berkeley0.354.8%1st Place
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3.6University of California at Los Angeles1.7923.6%1st Place
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8.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.263.5%1st Place
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4.73University of California at San Diego-0.0813.5%1st Place
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9.54University of California at Santa Cruz-0.402.5%1st Place
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9.91University of California at Berkeley-0.252.9%1st Place
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12.01University of California at San Diego-1.410.8%1st Place
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6.4Arizona State University0.666.6%1st Place
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8.86University of California at Berkeley-0.223.6%1st Place
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9.51University of California at Los Angeles-0.233.0%1st Place
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8.5University of California at Davis-0.193.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marianna Shand | 14.4% | 14.8% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Kai Ponting | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Enzo Cremers | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Grant Janov | 23.6% | 17.9% | 15.8% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 13.5% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 15.3% | 9.6% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 15.2% | 16.0% | 12.7% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 16.2% | 48.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 11.3% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.