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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.79+2.74vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.08+2.76vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.30+1.47vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.35+3.21vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+0.91vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.90-0.28vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+1.35vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.66-1.42vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.40+0.55vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-0.48vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.19-2.59vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.25-2.16vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.22-4.13vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.41-1.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.74University of California at Los Angeles1.7918.5%1st Place
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4.76University of California at San Diego-0.0814.9%1st Place
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4.47University of California at Los Angeles1.3014.5%1st Place
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7.21University of California at Berkeley0.356.0%1st Place
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5.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.139.0%1st Place
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5.72University of Southern California0.909.8%1st Place
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8.35Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.263.9%1st Place
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6.58Arizona State University0.667.0%1st Place
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9.55University of California at Santa Cruz-0.402.7%1st Place
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9.52University of California at Los Angeles-0.233.2%1st Place
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8.41University of California at Davis-0.194.2%1st Place
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9.84University of California at Berkeley-0.252.1%1st Place
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8.87University of California at Berkeley-0.223.4%1st Place
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12.06University of California at San Diego-1.410.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Janov | 18.5% | 19.5% | 16.4% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 14.9% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 14.5% | 14.1% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Cremers | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Kai Ponting | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Morgana Manti | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Florence Duff | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 4.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 10.1% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 9.7% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 4.8% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 16.6% | 12.4% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 6.7% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 49.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.