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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+3.38vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.23+2.32vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine3.43+1.05vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.64-0.37vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75+2.65vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California3.16-1.46vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.57+0.86vs Predicted
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8Santa Clara University2.36-1.77vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles2.63-3.21vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis1.68-2.26vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.43-1.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.38University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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4.32University of Hawaii3.230.1%1st Place
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4.05University of California at Irvine3.430.2%1st Place
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3.63Stanford University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.65Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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4.54University of Southern California3.160.1%1st Place
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7.86University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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6.23Santa Clara University2.360.1%1st Place
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5.79University of California at Los Angeles2.630.1%1st Place
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7.74University of California at Davis1.680.0%1st Place
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9.81University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sullivan | 12.8% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| William Petersen | 14.7% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Rex Cameron | 15.6% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter Stemler | 19.4% | 17.3% | 16.5% | 15.8% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Maher | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 17.7% | 19.7% | 11.1% |
| Stephen Lue | 13.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Aubrey Toole | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 17.7% | 21.9% | 13.5% |
| Lindsay Grove | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% |
| Oscar Jasklowski | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| Ryan Lee | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 10.2% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 15.5% | 59.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.