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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+4.89vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.36vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.79+0.60vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.08+0.75vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.90+0.83vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-0.19+2.44vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University0.66-0.52vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.25+1.64vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-0.44vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.22-1.16vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.40-1.46vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.35-4.61vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-3.31vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.41-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.138.3%1st Place
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4.36University of California at Los Angeles1.3015.0%1st Place
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3.6University of California at Los Angeles1.7921.8%1st Place
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4.75University of California at San Diego-0.0813.6%1st Place
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5.83University of Southern California0.909.8%1st Place
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8.44University of California at Davis-0.194.3%1st Place
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6.48Arizona State University0.666.8%1st Place
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9.64University of California at Berkeley-0.252.2%1st Place
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8.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.263.5%1st Place
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8.84University of California at Berkeley-0.223.5%1st Place
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9.54University of California at Santa Cruz-0.401.9%1st Place
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7.39University of California at Berkeley0.355.7%1st Place
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9.69University of California at Los Angeles-0.232.6%1st Place
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12.01University of California at San Diego-1.411.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Ponting | 8.3% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Marianna Shand | 15.0% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Grant Janov | 21.8% | 17.8% | 17.5% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 13.6% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 4.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 10.7% |
| Florence Duff | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 5.0% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 6.7% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 14.6% | 15.0% | 9.2% |
| Enzo Cremers | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 15.5% | 11.0% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 49.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.