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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+6.54vs Predicted
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2University of California at Davis-0.58+7.80vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.38+2.58vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+1.81vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.68-0.12vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.48-1.88vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.25+0.59vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.42+0.90vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-0.41-1.24vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.40-1.40vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00-1.08vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.43-6.20vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.63-4.28vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.03-4.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.54University of California at Santa Cruz-0.296.5%1st Place
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9.8University of California at Davis-0.583.0%1st Place
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5.58University of Southern California0.389.7%1st Place
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5.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.5110.0%1st Place
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4.88University of California at San Diego0.6814.6%1st Place
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4.12University of California at Los Angeles1.4818.6%1st Place
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7.59University of California at Berkeley-0.254.5%1st Place
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8.9University of California at San Diego-0.424.0%1st Place
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7.76Arizona State University-0.415.1%1st Place
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8.6University of California at Berkeley-0.404.2%1st Place
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9.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.002.4%1st Place
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5.8University of California at Los Angeles0.4310.7%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Berkeley-0.634.2%1st Place
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9.98University of California at Los Angeles-1.032.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Elliott | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 3.8% |
| Jonah Brees | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 19.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Max Case | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Noah Barton | 14.6% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 18.6% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Jacobs | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| Amanda Brooks | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 10.2% |
| Mitchell Powers | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% |
| Aivan Durfee | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.5% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 14.4% | 18.6% |
| Zack Taylor | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Max Lawall | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% |
| samson grunwald | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 21.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.