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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.48+2.96vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley-0.40+6.30vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+2.92vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+3.50vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.68-0.23vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-0.41+1.89vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.63+1.63vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.58+1.78vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.43-3.47vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California-0.01-3.24vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.00-1.23vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.42-3.03vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.25-5.69vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.03-4.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.96University of California at Los Angeles1.4818.9%1st Place
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8.3University of California at Berkeley-0.404.2%1st Place
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5.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.519.3%1st Place
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7.5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.295.7%1st Place
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4.77University of California at San Diego0.6814.5%1st Place
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7.89Arizona State University-0.415.2%1st Place
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8.63University of California at Berkeley-0.634.7%1st Place
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9.78University of California at Davis-0.582.6%1st Place
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5.53University of California at Los Angeles0.4312.0%1st Place
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6.76University of Southern California-0.017.2%1st Place
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9.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.002.7%1st Place
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8.97University of California at San Diego-0.423.9%1st Place
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7.31University of California at Berkeley-0.256.5%1st Place
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9.91University of California at Los Angeles-1.032.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 18.9% | 17.6% | 15.2% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aivan Durfee | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% |
| Max Case | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Lucas Elliott | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% |
| Noah Barton | 14.5% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Mitchell Powers | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Max Lawall | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.7% |
| Jonah Brees | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 18.4% |
| Zack Taylor | 12.0% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Eleanor Desai | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 18.1% |
| Amanda Brooks | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.3% |
| Sophia Jacobs | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| samson grunwald | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 19.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.