Race 1A

atlantic-coast-tournament

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Caleb Armstrong 5.6% 5.6% 7.6% 7.7% 7.0% 6.6% 8.2% 8.2% 8.8% 9.2% 7.5% 7.9% 6.4% 3.7%
Ian Connors 2.4% 4.1% 3.4% 4.3% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.8% 8.6% 10.6% 12.6% 14.2% 13.3%
Gordon Wolcott 10.1% 8.6% 11.2% 7.8% 8.1% 8.7% 9.3% 9.2% 8.0% 6.1% 5.0% 4.9% 2.4% 0.6%
Jake Reynolds 8.5% 12.1% 9.7% 9.4% 10.6% 10.5% 7.6% 7.3% 7.0% 6.4% 4.9% 3.4% 2.6% 0.0%
Kevin Martland 11.0% 12.1% 10.8% 11.8% 10.5% 8.5% 7.7% 7.1% 6.6% 5.8% 3.5% 2.5% 1.8% 0.3%
Alden Sonnenfeldt 3.0% 4.0% 3.1% 2.8% 4.5% 4.4% 5.0% 6.0% 9.3% 7.2% 11.1% 11.9% 12.8% 14.9%
Avery Fanning 18.7% 15.3% 14.2% 11.7% 9.7% 7.4% 7.6% 5.9% 3.9% 2.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Kyle Carney 8.1% 8.7% 8.5% 8.6% 8.0% 8.1% 9.8% 7.8% 7.0% 6.2% 6.8% 5.9% 4.6% 1.9%
Griffin Orr 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% 4.1% 4.8% 4.8% 5.4% 8.3% 7.7% 10.5% 12.9% 15.3% 13.6%
Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk 6.7% 5.4% 8.1% 9.4% 7.6% 8.9% 7.8% 8.2% 7.2% 8.1% 9.7% 6.8% 4.3% 1.8%
Don Hause III 5.3% 5.0% 4.0% 5.5% 7.8% 6.1% 6.9% 8.3% 7.6% 9.7% 9.4% 9.1% 8.2% 7.1%
Ian Towill 4.8% 5.7% 6.0% 7.0% 6.6% 8.2% 7.6% 8.6% 9.3% 8.8% 8.0% 8.3% 6.8% 4.3%
Michael Croteau 10.8% 8.8% 8.4% 9.0% 8.7% 9.7% 9.7% 9.0% 6.3% 6.8% 5.2% 3.3% 3.0% 1.3%
Joan Boyle 1.5% 1.3% 2.0% 2.2% 2.0% 2.8% 2.7% 3.7% 4.9% 7.2% 5.4% 10.1% 17.1% 37.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.