Race 4A

rainier-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Hannah Darrin 17.5% 16.0% 17.4% 13.2% 11.7% 7.8% 7.3% 3.6% 3.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Felipe Lopez 23.7% 22.8% 15.5% 12.8% 7.8% 7.4% 5.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Katherine Stephens 9.1% 7.7% 10.3% 10.4% 8.7% 10.2% 13.1% 11.2% 7.9% 6.3% 4.2% 0.9%
Carmen Bozina 5.1% 6.3% 7.1% 9.2% 11.2% 10.0% 10.2% 9.2% 10.0% 10.2% 9.0% 2.5%
Mickail Murawski 7.1% 8.2% 7.9% 10.2% 9.1% 10.7% 9.0% 11.2% 10.0% 8.4% 5.8% 2.4%
Andrew Wien 4.7% 6.4% 5.5% 6.5% 7.2% 7.5% 9.6% 11.4% 11.7% 13.2% 12.4% 3.9%
Logan Swartz 8.9% 9.6% 9.4% 9.8% 11.0% 10.6% 10.4% 7.9% 10.2% 7.2% 3.5% 1.5%
Bryan Rust 10.4% 9.6% 9.9% 8.0% 10.9% 11.5% 8.4% 10.1% 8.8% 6.5% 4.5% 1.4%
Aike Burger 1.9% 2.5% 3.4% 2.9% 3.7% 5.9% 7.2% 8.0% 10.6% 12.9% 26.3% 14.7%
Robert Sarkissian 0.7% 0.4% 1.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 2.9% 4.1% 8.3% 11.8% 62.6%
Mike Knape 3.8% 3.6% 4.6% 5.5% 6.6% 6.0% 8.2% 11.7% 10.4% 15.0% 15.9% 8.7%
Craig Emmes 7.1% 6.9% 7.5% 8.8% 10.1% 11.0% 9.9% 10.1% 11.6% 9.5% 6.1% 1.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.