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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+4.88vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+2.56vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont1.05+5.37vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.58+3.76vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+2.70vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.05+2.75vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.48+1.70vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.53-0.73vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90+0.34vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.66-3.67vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College0.90-1.43vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.67-5.63vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California0.21-1.27vs Predicted
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14George Washington University0.70-4.39vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-0.67-0.51vs Predicted
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16Oregon State University-1.00-0.44vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-0.39-2.83vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley-0.88-3.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88University of California at Santa Barbara1.7810.7%1st Place
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4.56Georgetown University2.2017.1%1st Place
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8.37University of Vermont1.055.0%1st Place
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7.76Roger Williams University1.585.7%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.606.9%1st Place
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8.75University of Hawaii1.054.9%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Los Angeles1.485.3%1st Place
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7.27North Carolina State University1.537.3%1st Place
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9.34St. Mary's College of Maryland0.904.1%1st Place
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6.33Northwestern University1.6610.2%1st Place
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9.57Eckerd College0.904.0%1st Place
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6.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.6710.1%1st Place
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11.73University of Southern California0.211.8%1st Place
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9.61George Washington University0.704.0%1st Place
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14.49Santa Clara University-0.671.1%1st Place
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15.56Oregon State University-1.000.6%1st Place
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14.17Arizona State University-0.390.7%1st Place
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14.82University of California at Berkeley-0.880.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.1% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| George Higham | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emma Snead | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Usher | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Max Kleha | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Delaney Smith | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Richardson | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Cole Tillson | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Miles Kirkbride | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 2.5% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Morgan Vodzak | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 15.8% | 19.4% | 19.6% |
| Quincy Spurlock | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 20.2% | 36.7% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 18.9% | 15.8% |
| Viola Phillips Frank | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 17.0% | 22.9% | 23.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.