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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin2.37+1.93vs Predicted
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2Bates College1.32+2.85vs Predicted
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3University of Michigan2.49-0.19vs Predicted
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4University of Buffalo1.34+0.77vs Predicted
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5Michigan State University0.22+1.66vs Predicted
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6University of Minnesota2.01-2.49vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University0.49-0.65vs Predicted
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8Purdue University1.14-2.89vs Predicted
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9University of Chicago-1.32-0.16vs Predicted
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11Michigan State University0.22-4.34vs Predicted
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12University of Toledo-1.63-2.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.93University of Wisconsin2.370.3%1st Place
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4.85Bates College1.320.1%1st Place
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2.81University of Michigan2.490.3%1st Place
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4.77University of Buffalo1.340.1%1st Place
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6.66Michigan State University0.220.0%1st Place
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3.51University of Minnesota2.010.2%1st Place
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6.35Northwestern University0.490.0%1st Place
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5.11Purdue University1.140.1%1st Place
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8.84University of Chicago-1.320.0%1st Place
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6.66Michigan State University0.220.0%1st Place
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9.16University of Toledo-1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Kinzel | 25.7% | 23.0% | 17.8% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Moan | 9.1% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 17.7% | 14.5% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Will Cyr | 26.1% | 23.6% | 18.7% | 15.3% | 9.9% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 7.2% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 17.3% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Colton Radenbaugh | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 16.1% | 28.6% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Oltrogge | 18.8% | 15.8% | 17.9% | 17.6% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabrielle Salvaterra | 3.0% | 2.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 20.8% | 22.7% | 10.6% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Grant Pollock | 6.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Katy Carlyle | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 10.0% | 38.7% | 38.9% | 0.0% |
| Colton Radenbaugh | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 16.1% | 28.6% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Logan | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 9.0% | 27.5% | 55.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.