← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Michigan2.49+1.77vs Predicted
-
2University of Minnesota2.01+1.60vs Predicted
-
3University of Wisconsin2.37-0.02vs Predicted
-
4Purdue University1.14+1.13vs Predicted
-
5University of Buffalo1.34-0.31vs Predicted
-
6Northwestern University0.49+0.27vs Predicted
-
7Michigan State University0.22-0.19vs Predicted
-
8Bates College1.32-3.24vs Predicted
-
9Michigan State University0.22-2.19vs Predicted
-
11University of Chicago-1.32-2.16vs Predicted
-
12University of Toledo-1.63-2.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.77University of Michigan2.490.3%1st Place
-
3.6University of Minnesota2.010.2%1st Place
-
2.98University of Wisconsin2.370.2%1st Place
-
5.13Purdue University1.140.1%1st Place
-
4.69University of Buffalo1.340.1%1st Place
-
6.27Northwestern University0.490.1%1st Place
-
6.81Michigan State University0.220.0%1st Place
-
4.76Bates College1.320.1%1st Place
-
6.81Michigan State University0.220.0%1st Place
-
8.84University of Chicago-1.320.0%1st Place
-
9.15University of Toledo-1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cyr | 29.2% | 22.6% | 18.9% | 13.0% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Oltrogge | 16.1% | 18.1% | 17.7% | 14.8% | 15.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kinzel | 23.6% | 21.9% | 19.3% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Pollock | 6.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 15.1% | 17.3% | 16.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 16.3% | 17.6% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gabrielle Salvaterra | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 19.0% | 23.8% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Colton Radenbaugh | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 19.8% | 29.2% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Edward Moan | 7.9% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 14.5% | 16.2% | 13.3% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Colton Radenbaugh | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 19.8% | 29.2% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Katy Carlyle | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 10.2% | 38.2% | 39.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Logan | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 28.0% | 54.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.