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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.61+2.67vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+2.77vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.27+1.47vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.48+5.06vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.89+1.03vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+2.68vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island0.88+2.49vs Predicted
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8Boston University0.86+1.72vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+1.10vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.98-1.12vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-1.41vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.74-1.00vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.64-2.17vs Predicted
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14University of Victoria0.13-1.64vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.22-2.77vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis0.00-2.90vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University0.53-5.23vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-0.83-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.67Stanford University2.6120.9%1st Place
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4.77University of California at Santa Barbara2.0414.1%1st Place
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4.47University of Hawaii2.2716.4%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Los Angeles1.483.8%1st Place
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6.03University of Southern California1.899.3%1st Place
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8.68California Poly Maritime Academy1.204.5%1st Place
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9.49University of Rhode Island0.884.0%1st Place
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9.72Boston University0.863.6%1st Place
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10.1University of California at Santa Cruz0.822.9%1st Place
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8.88University of California at Berkeley0.984.4%1st Place
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9.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.133.5%1st Place
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11.0Arizona State University0.742.3%1st Place
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10.83Western Washington University0.642.2%1st Place
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12.36University of Victoria0.131.9%1st Place
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12.23University of California at San Diego0.221.9%1st Place
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13.1University of California at Davis0.001.5%1st Place
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11.77San Diego State University0.532.1%1st Place
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15.25California State University Channel Islands-0.830.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 20.9% | 18.2% | 16.4% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 14.1% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 16.4% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Davis Winsor | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Molly Coghlin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Benjamin Luu | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| George Soliman | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Will Cornell | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Kai Ponting | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Tyler Nolasco | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.0% |
| Nathan Lemke | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 10.3% |
| Svenja Leonard | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 8.0% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 14.5% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
| Rob Reigelman | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 45.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.