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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+3.79vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.61+1.62vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.27+1.54vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island0.88+5.71vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.48+3.98vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.89-0.03vs Predicted
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7Boston University0.86+2.76vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.64+2.86vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+0.51vs Predicted
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10University of Victoria0.13+2.65vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.98-2.18vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy1.20-3.49vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University0.53-1.17vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.22-1.87vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-4.88vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis0.00-3.02vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University0.74-6.20vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-0.83-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79University of California at Santa Barbara2.0414.1%1st Place
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3.62Stanford University2.6121.6%1st Place
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4.54University of Hawaii2.2715.8%1st Place
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9.71University of Rhode Island0.883.7%1st Place
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8.98University of California at Los Angeles1.484.4%1st Place
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5.97University of Southern California1.899.6%1st Place
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9.76Boston University0.863.0%1st Place
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10.86Western Washington University0.642.2%1st Place
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9.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.133.3%1st Place
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12.65University of Victoria0.131.9%1st Place
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8.82University of California at Berkeley0.984.5%1st Place
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8.51California Poly Maritime Academy1.204.5%1st Place
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11.83San Diego State University0.532.2%1st Place
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12.13University of California at San Diego0.222.2%1st Place
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10.12University of California at Santa Cruz0.822.6%1st Place
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12.98University of California at Davis0.000.9%1st Place
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10.8Arizona State University0.742.7%1st Place
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15.4California State University Channel Islands-0.830.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 14.1% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 21.6% | 19.1% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 15.8% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Molly Coghlin | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Davis Winsor | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Luu | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Tyler Nolasco | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.7% |
| Kai Ponting | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Nathan Lemke | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 10.8% |
| Will Cornell | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Downey | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 6.5% |
| Svenja Leonard | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.6% |
| George Soliman | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 13.6% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 3.6% |
| Rob Reigelman | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 16.1% | 43.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.