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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+3.78vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.61+1.77vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.89+3.00vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.98+4.70vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.27-0.55vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.86+3.70vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island0.88+2.72vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+1.98vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+0.54vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.53+1.67vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.48-1.87vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.74-1.09vs Predicted
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13University of Victoria0.13-0.32vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.22-1.91vs Predicted
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15Western Washington University0.64-3.96vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis0.00-3.07vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-0.83-1.70vs Predicted
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18California Poly Maritime Academy1.20-9.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.78University of California at Santa Barbara2.0414.0%1st Place
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3.77Stanford University2.6121.8%1st Place
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6.0University of Southern California1.899.9%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Berkeley0.984.5%1st Place
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4.45University of Hawaii2.2716.3%1st Place
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9.7Boston University0.863.1%1st Place
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9.72University of Rhode Island0.882.9%1st Place
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9.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.822.9%1st Place
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9.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.133.6%1st Place
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11.67San Diego State University0.532.1%1st Place
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9.13University of California at Los Angeles1.484.0%1st Place
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10.91Arizona State University0.742.5%1st Place
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12.68University of Victoria0.131.8%1st Place
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12.09University of California at San Diego0.221.9%1st Place
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11.04Western Washington University0.642.5%1st Place
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12.93University of California at Davis0.001.1%1st Place
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15.3California State University Channel Islands-0.830.8%1st Place
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8.62California Poly Maritime Academy1.204.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Kayda | 14.0% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Michelle Lahrkamp | 21.8% | 18.1% | 15.6% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Davis Winsor | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Will Cornell | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
Bastien Rasse | 16.3% | 14.8% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Benjamin Luu | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
Molly Coghlin | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
George Soliman | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
Kai Ponting | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
Christopher Hopkins | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 6.9% |
Gideon Burnes Heath | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
Aidan Boylan | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
Nathan Lemke | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 11.6% |
Svenja Leonard | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 7.5% |
Tyler Nolasco | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.5% |
Sean von Engelbrechten | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 13.7% |
Rob Reigelman | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 15.6% | 43.8% |
Ryan Downey | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.