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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+1.32vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.54vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.79+2.42vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.56+2.15vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.81+3.66vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.66+3.44vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+3.56vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-1.33vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.90-0.43vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-0.94vs Predicted
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11University of Victoria-0.25+1.59vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.68-2.44vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-0.19-0.43vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.08-1.87vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-0.19-3.10vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.36-5.52vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University-0.19-4.75vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-2.40-0.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.32Stanford University3.3039.7%1st Place
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5.54University of California at Santa Barbara1.4410.2%1st Place
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5.42University of California at Los Angeles1.799.8%1st Place
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6.15University of Hawaii1.566.8%1st Place
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8.66University of Washington0.813.8%1st Place
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9.44Arizona State University0.662.9%1st Place
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10.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.4%1st Place
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6.67California Poly Maritime Academy1.626.5%1st Place
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8.57University of Southern California0.903.8%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.7%1st Place
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12.59University of Victoria-0.251.1%1st Place
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9.56University of California at San Diego0.682.8%1st Place
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12.57University of California at Santa Barbara-0.190.9%1st Place
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12.13University of California at Berkeley-0.081.7%1st Place
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11.9University of California at Davis-0.191.4%1st Place
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10.48Western Washington University0.362.3%1st Place
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12.25San Diego State University-0.191.4%1st Place
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17.13California State University Channel Islands-2.400.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 39.7% | 24.1% | 17.2% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 9.8% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trey Summers | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Max Case | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Clay Myers | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Ilya Sharikov | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 16.9% | 4.5% |
| Noah Barton | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Ariana Fernandez | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 15.7% | 4.2% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 3.4% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 2.9% |
| Leopold Sabharwal | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 1.0% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 4.3% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 76.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.