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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+1.27vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.79+3.48vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+2.66vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+2.60vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.81+3.65vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.36+4.45vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.56-1.00vs Predicted
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8University of Victoria-0.25+4.44vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.66+0.39vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.90-1.59vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-0.22vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-2.76vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.19-0.68vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.68-4.27vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara-0.19-2.67vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-0.19-3.92vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley-0.08-4.90vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-2.40-0.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.27Stanford University3.3040.3%1st Place
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5.48University of California at Los Angeles1.799.3%1st Place
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5.66University of California at Santa Barbara1.448.6%1st Place
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6.6California Poly Maritime Academy1.626.3%1st Place
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8.65University of Washington0.813.8%1st Place
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10.45Western Washington University0.361.7%1st Place
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6.0University of Hawaii1.568.3%1st Place
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12.44University of Victoria-0.251.1%1st Place
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9.39Arizona State University0.662.9%1st Place
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8.41University of Southern California0.904.2%1st Place
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10.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.511.8%1st Place
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9.24University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.2%1st Place
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12.32San Diego State University-0.191.4%1st Place
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9.73University of California at San Diego0.682.2%1st Place
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12.33University of California at Santa Barbara-0.191.4%1st Place
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12.08University of California at Davis-0.191.8%1st Place
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12.1University of California at Berkeley-0.081.1%1st Place
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17.1California State University Channel Islands-2.400.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 40.3% | 27.3% | 14.9% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.6% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Leopold Sabharwal | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 0.7% |
| Trey Summers | 8.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ilya Sharikov | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 4.5% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Max Case | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 1.6% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 4.1% |
| Noah Barton | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Ariana Fernandez | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 3.7% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 3.2% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 3.1% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 77.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.