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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+4.57vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+4.65vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.81+5.60vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.36+6.41vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.30-2.63vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.68+3.73vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.79-1.64vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.66+1.39vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.90-0.49vs Predicted
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10University of Victoria-0.25+2.60vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii1.56-5.03vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.08+0.22vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-3.95vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara-0.19-1.66vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-4.27vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-0.19-3.59vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-0.19-5.04vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-2.40-0.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57University of California at Santa Barbara1.4410.0%1st Place
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6.65California Poly Maritime Academy1.626.5%1st Place
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8.6University of Washington0.813.5%1st Place
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10.41Western Washington University0.362.3%1st Place
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2.37Stanford University3.3039.7%1st Place
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9.73University of California at San Diego0.682.6%1st Place
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5.36University of California at Los Angeles1.799.6%1st Place
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9.39Arizona State University0.663.0%1st Place
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8.51University of Southern California0.904.0%1st Place
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12.6University of Victoria-0.251.5%1st Place
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5.97University of Hawaii1.566.9%1st Place
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12.22University of California at Berkeley-0.081.6%1st Place
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9.05University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.0%1st Place
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12.34University of California at Santa Barbara-0.191.3%1st Place
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10.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.511.7%1st Place
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12.41San Diego State University-0.191.3%1st Place
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11.96University of California at Davis-0.191.5%1st Place
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17.16California State University Channel Islands-2.400.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Leopold Sabharwal | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 39.7% | 25.2% | 14.5% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Grant Janov | 9.6% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Ilya Sharikov | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 16.2% | 4.5% |
| Trey Summers | 6.9% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 3.4% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Ariana Fernandez | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 3.9% |
| Max Case | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 1.1% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 3.6% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 2.9% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 78.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.