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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+1.28vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.90+6.54vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+3.62vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.68+5.71vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+0.69vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.79-0.69vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.81+1.69vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+1.25vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara-0.19+3.36vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.56-3.94vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.08+1.03vs Predicted
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12University of Victoria-0.25+0.54vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-2.40vs Predicted
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14Western Washington University0.36-3.51vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University0.66-5.57vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-0.19-3.60vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-0.19-5.09vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-2.40-0.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.28Stanford University3.3040.2%1st Place
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8.54University of Southern California0.903.6%1st Place
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6.62California Poly Maritime Academy1.626.9%1st Place
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9.71University of California at San Diego0.683.0%1st Place
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5.69University of California at Santa Barbara1.448.6%1st Place
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5.31University of California at Los Angeles1.7910.1%1st Place
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8.69University of Washington0.813.0%1st Place
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9.25University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.5%1st Place
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12.36University of California at Santa Barbara-0.190.9%1st Place
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6.06University of Hawaii1.567.2%1st Place
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12.03University of California at Berkeley-0.081.8%1st Place
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12.54University of Victoria-0.251.8%1st Place
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10.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.511.9%1st Place
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10.49Western Washington University0.362.0%1st Place
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9.43Arizona State University0.663.1%1st Place
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12.4San Diego State University-0.191.3%1st Place
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11.91University of California at Davis-0.191.6%1st Place
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17.1California State University Channel Islands-2.400.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 40.2% | 26.2% | 15.3% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Clay Myers | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Noah Barton | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.1% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Ariana Fernandez | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 4.2% |
| Trey Summers | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 2.9% |
| Ilya Sharikov | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 4.2% |
| Max Case | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 0.9% |
| Leopold Sabharwal | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 0.9% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 4.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2.6% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 78.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.