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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.64+2.20vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+3.53vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University0.54+6.15vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.10vs Predicted
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5University of Washington-1.39+5.50vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.70-0.37vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz1.03+2.28vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii0.12+2.91vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.98-1.04vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University0.44-0.16vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.07-0.49vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72-3.49vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy0.97-5.25vs Predicted
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14University of Victoria-0.64-0.35vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.27+0.21vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-1.34-0.78vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego0.52-7.94vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-0.39-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.2Stanford University2.6428.0%1st Place
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5.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.7410.2%1st Place
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9.15Western Washington University0.544.2%1st Place
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6.1University of California at Los Angeles1.3010.0%1st Place
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10.5University of Washington-1.392.4%1st Place
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5.63University of Hawaii1.7010.4%1st Place
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9.28University of California at Santa Cruz1.033.9%1st Place
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10.91University of Hawaii0.122.4%1st Place
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7.96University of California at Berkeley0.985.0%1st Place
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9.84Jacksonville University0.443.4%1st Place
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10.51University of California at Davis0.072.9%1st Place
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8.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.724.2%1st Place
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7.75California Poly Maritime Academy0.975.2%1st Place
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13.65University of Victoria-0.640.9%1st Place
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15.21San Diego State University-1.270.6%1st Place
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15.22California State University Channel Islands-1.340.6%1st Place
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9.06University of California at San Diego0.524.5%1st Place
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12.98Arizona State University-0.391.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Freeman | 28.0% | 20.9% | 16.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Marianna Shand | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emily Smith | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Owen Lahr | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 2.3% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Barney | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Ryan Milne | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Ben Louttit | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Maclain Walsworth | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 17.6% | 13.4% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 11.7% | 20.8% | 33.2% |
| Joseph Silveira | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 19.0% | 35.0% |
| John Alexander | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 9.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.