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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+4.75vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.64+1.56vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.26vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.41-0.40vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.52+4.32vs Predicted
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6University of Washington-1.39+4.72vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii0.12+4.13vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+0.70vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.54+0.29vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis0.07+0.53vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.98-3.09vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University0.44-2.07vs Predicted
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13University of Victoria-0.64+0.46vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.39-1.16vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.34+0.31vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-1.27-0.60vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz1.03-7.65vs Predicted
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18California Poly Maritime Academy0.97-10.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.7410.7%1st Place
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3.56Stanford University2.6421.3%1st Place
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6.26University of California at Los Angeles1.307.8%1st Place
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3.6University of Hawaii2.4121.8%1st Place
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9.32University of California at San Diego0.523.9%1st Place
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10.72University of Washington-1.392.3%1st Place
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11.13University of Hawaii0.122.1%1st Place
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8.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.723.8%1st Place
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9.29Western Washington University0.542.9%1st Place
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10.53University of California at Davis0.072.1%1st Place
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7.91University of California at Berkeley0.985.8%1st Place
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9.93Jacksonville University0.442.8%1st Place
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13.46University of Victoria-0.641.4%1st Place
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12.84Arizona State University-0.391.6%1st Place
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15.31California State University Channel Islands-1.340.6%1st Place
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15.4San Diego State University-1.270.4%1st Place
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9.35University of California at Santa Cruz1.034.2%1st Place
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7.94California Poly Maritime Academy0.974.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Freeman | 21.3% | 21.1% | 15.6% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 21.8% | 18.3% | 15.9% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Alexander | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Emily Smith | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Ryan Milne | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Barney | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Maclain Walsworth | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 16.5% | 12.8% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 8.0% |
| Joseph Silveira | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 20.2% | 35.9% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 22.9% | 35.1% |
| Aitor Iriso | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Ben Louttit | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.