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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of British Columbia0.96+3.78vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.46+4.80vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University0.67+2.88vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.64+1.67vs Predicted
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5University of Victoria0.13+2.57vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.51-0.51vs Predicted
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7Oregon State University-1.25+4.49vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.23-1.05vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University-0.47+0.26vs Predicted
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10University of Victoria-0.25-1.46vs Predicted
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11University of Oregon0.11-3.92vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.03-4.23vs Predicted
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13University of Victoria-0.64-3.21vs Predicted
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14University of Washington-0.56-4.60vs Predicted
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15University of British Columbia-2.30-1.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.78University of British Columbia0.9614.5%1st Place
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6.8University of Washington0.468.3%1st Place
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5.88Western Washington University0.679.8%1st Place
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5.67Western Washington University0.6411.5%1st Place
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7.57University of Victoria0.136.7%1st Place
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5.49University of Washington0.5112.6%1st Place
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11.49Oregon State University-1.251.8%1st Place
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6.95Western Washington University0.237.9%1st Place
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9.26Western Washington University-0.473.2%1st Place
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8.54University of Victoria-0.254.2%1st Place
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7.08University of Oregon0.118.0%1st Place
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7.77Western Washington University0.035.1%1st Place
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9.79University of Victoria-0.642.5%1st Place
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9.4University of Washington-0.563.3%1st Place
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13.54University of British Columbia-2.300.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Fretenburg | 14.5% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Zackery Martin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Dalton Lovett | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Nolasco | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Lemke | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 12.6% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Wickman | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 25.3% | 17.6% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Lindburg | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 4.6% |
| Ilya Sharikov | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% |
| Emily Avey | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Caroline Hurley | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Maclain Walsworth | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 5.9% |
| Lauren McClintock | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 4.3% |
| Jack Rector | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 12.8% | 61.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.