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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+2.33vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego1.60+2.24vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine1.35+1.90vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.33+5.32vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.85+1.04vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University1.51-2.53vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara0.40-0.74vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.83-3.82vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.30-1.80vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands0.37-4.58vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.02-2.36vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.49-6.71vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California-0.91-4.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.33University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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4.24University of California at San Diego1.600.2%1st Place
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4.9University of California at Irvine1.350.1%1st Place
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9.32University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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6.04University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
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4.47Arizona State University1.510.1%1st Place
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7.26University of California at Santa Barbara0.400.1%1st Place
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6.18University of California at Los Angeles0.830.1%1st Place
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9.2University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
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7.42California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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10.64University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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7.29University of California at San Diego0.490.1%1st Place
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10.71University of Southern California-0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 24.5% | 19.2% | 16.1% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 15.2% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Weis | 10.2% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Keefe | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 15.9% | 17.1% | 13.3% |
| Hollis Barth | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Spenser Branch | 14.0% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Ryder | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Nora Brackbill | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Louise Lehman | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 16.9% | 11.8% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| Ellen Suder | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 21.7% | 30.6% |
| Joseph McArdle | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
| Nicole Bosetti | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 19.6% | 34.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.