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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+1.35vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine1.35+1.91vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego1.60+0.29vs Predicted
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5California State University Channel Islands0.37+2.44vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.85+0.06vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University1.51-3.57vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara0.40-1.71vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California-0.91+0.51vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.30-1.78vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.49-4.90vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.33-3.91vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.83-7.58vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-1.02-4.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.35University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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4.91University of California at Irvine1.350.1%1st Place
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4.29University of California at San Diego1.600.1%1st Place
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7.44California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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6.06University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
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4.43Arizona State University1.510.1%1st Place
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7.29University of California at Santa Barbara0.400.1%1st Place
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10.51University of Southern California-0.910.0%1st Place
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9.22University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
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7.1University of California at San Diego0.490.1%1st Place
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9.09University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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6.42University of California at Los Angeles0.830.1%1st Place
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10.9University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 24.0% | 19.6% | 16.1% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 10.8% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| John Olson | 13.6% | 18.0% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 2.5% |
| Hollis Barth | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 14.2% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Ryder | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 2.3% |
| Nicole Bosetti | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 22.4% | 30.1% |
| Louise Lehman | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 17.9% | 15.6% | 12.3% |
| Joseph McArdle | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| Christopher Keefe | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 15.9% | 15.3% | 10.8% |
| Nora Brackbill | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Ellen Suder | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 20.4% | 37.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.