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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+1.33vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego1.60+1.25vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.85+2.22vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara0.40+2.42vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.83+0.17vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University1.51-3.58vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine1.35-4.19vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.37-2.61vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-1.02-0.25vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.49-4.90vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.33-3.92vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California-0.91-3.30vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.30-5.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.33University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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4.25University of California at San Diego1.600.1%1st Place
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6.22University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
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7.42University of California at Santa Barbara0.400.0%1st Place
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6.17University of California at Los Angeles0.830.1%1st Place
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4.42Arizona State University1.510.1%1st Place
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4.81University of California at Irvine1.350.1%1st Place
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7.39California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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10.75University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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7.1University of California at San Diego0.490.1%1st Place
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9.08University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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10.7University of Southern California-0.910.0%1st Place
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9.36University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 24.7% | 18.9% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.6% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 5.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Lucas Ryder | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Nora Brackbill | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Spenser Branch | 13.8% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Weis | 12.6% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 6.3% | 1.6% |
| Ellen Suder | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 12.0% | 21.7% | 35.9% |
| Joseph McArdle | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Christopher Keefe | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 10.1% |
| Nicole Bosetti | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 22.0% | 33.1% |
| Louise Lehman | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 17.8% | 15.9% | 12.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.