Race 1B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Justin Skene 14.3% 13.2% 12.2% 12.4% 10.8% 9.8% 8.0% 6.9% 5.0% 3.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Brody Schwartz 10.2% 9.9% 9.2% 9.0% 9.9% 10.9% 8.9% 8.7% 8.2% 6.9% 4.5% 2.6% 1.0%
Charlotte Kane 11.8% 13.5% 11.6% 11.8% 10.7% 10.0% 8.2% 8.8% 5.6% 3.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Dominique DeLano 5.3% 6.3% 7.8% 7.0% 7.4% 6.9% 8.8% 8.6% 10.0% 9.7% 9.5% 7.5% 5.0%
Brittany Shabino 8.6% 7.0% 8.1% 8.1% 6.7% 9.0% 9.4% 8.8% 10.0% 9.6% 7.8% 5.3% 1.8%
Meredith Moore 3.0% 2.4% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 4.2% 6.2% 5.5% 7.4% 9.3% 12.9% 17.9% 21.4%
Noah Hallerman 7.1% 8.2% 8.5% 7.2% 8.4% 8.6% 9.1% 9.7% 9.4% 8.5% 8.7% 4.4% 2.1%
Reid Kwiatkowski 3.1% 3.3% 4.4% 4.5% 5.9% 5.8% 6.9% 7.8% 10.0% 10.7% 11.1% 15.0% 11.6%
Matthew Beretta 5.3% 6.4% 5.3% 6.6% 7.2% 6.7% 7.8% 9.2% 9.6% 11.1% 10.8% 8.8% 5.1%
Nithya Balachander 16.9% 13.9% 13.5% 12.5% 10.4% 9.3% 8.3% 5.7% 4.2% 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Noah Troyer 3.0% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 7.8% 8.6% 9.8% 13.1% 15.7% 12.4%
Conall Lynch 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 3.4% 5.7% 8.0% 10.9% 18.4% 38.5%
Nick Myneni 9.6% 10.1% 10.7% 11.7% 10.7% 10.3% 9.3% 9.2% 6.3% 5.8% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.