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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego1.60+3.05vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+0.17vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.85+1.93vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.49+1.81vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University1.51-1.77vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.83-1.15vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands0.37-2.04vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara-1.64+1.38vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.33-2.19vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine1.35-7.39vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.02-2.83vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California-0.91-3.80vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.30-6.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.05University of California at San Diego1.600.2%1st Place
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3.17University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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5.93University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
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6.81University of California at San Diego0.490.0%1st Place
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4.23Arizona State University1.510.1%1st Place
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5.85University of California at Los Angeles0.830.1%1st Place
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6.96California State University Channel Islands0.370.1%1st Place
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11.38University of California at Santa Barbara-1.640.0%1st Place
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8.81University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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4.61University of California at Irvine1.350.1%1st Place
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10.17University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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10.2University of Southern California-0.910.0%1st Place
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8.82University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Olson | 16.9% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 23.7% | 23.3% | 17.1% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Joseph McArdle | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Spenser Branch | 14.9% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nora Brackbill | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Natalie Davidson | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 19.3% | 47.7% |
| Christopher Keefe | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 6.2% |
| Nicholas Weis | 13.2% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ellen Suder | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 16.3% | 23.3% | 18.1% |
| Nicole Bosetti | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 18.0% | 20.4% | 21.0% |
| Louise Lehman | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 15.5% | 17.1% | 12.5% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.