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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego1.60+3.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+1.13vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.85+2.90vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University1.51-0.70vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.83-1.18vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.49-1.32vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara-1.64+2.30vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine1.35-5.39vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-1.02-0.71vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands0.37-4.93vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California-0.91-2.99vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.30-5.18vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.33-6.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1University of California at San Diego1.600.2%1st Place
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3.13University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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5.9University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
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4.3Arizona State University1.510.1%1st Place
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5.82University of California at Los Angeles0.830.1%1st Place
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6.68University of California at San Diego0.490.1%1st Place
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11.3University of California at Santa Barbara-1.640.0%1st Place
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4.61University of California at Irvine1.350.1%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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7.07California State University Channel Islands0.370.1%1st Place
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10.01University of Southern California-0.910.0%1st Place
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8.82University of California at Los Angeles-0.300.0%1st Place
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8.97University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Olson | 16.9% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 25.0% | 21.9% | 18.1% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Spenser Branch | 14.3% | 14.6% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nora Brackbill | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Joseph McArdle | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Natalie Davidson | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 19.5% | 47.3% |
| Nicholas Weis | 12.4% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ellen Suder | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 22.1% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.2% |
| Nicole Bosetti | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 18.6% | 19.2% | 16.5% |
| Louise Lehman | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 16.4% | 16.6% | 13.3% | 5.2% |
| Christopher Keefe | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 14.8% | 15.8% | 14.5% | 6.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.