Race 5B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Christian Ehrnrooth 20.7% 17.2% 15.8% 12.2% 11.2% 8.0% 7.1% 3.5% 2.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Nick Myneni 12.4% 11.8% 11.3% 11.3% 11.8% 10.5% 9.5% 8.2% 6.0% 4.3% 2.2% 0.4%
Matthew Beretta 6.0% 7.5% 7.0% 7.5% 7.7% 9.0% 8.8% 10.6% 10.3% 10.9% 9.7% 4.9%
Dominique DeLano 6.2% 7.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.8% 9.2% 10.7% 9.4% 11.1% 9.7% 7.8% 5.0%
Brody Schwartz 9.8% 10.3% 10.8% 10.5% 10.9% 10.7% 10.9% 8.6% 7.4% 5.5% 3.1% 1.2%
Noah Hallerman 7.8% 8.7% 9.0% 8.9% 9.8% 10.2% 9.4% 10.2% 9.4% 8.3% 5.7% 2.4%
Brittany Shabino 8.6% 8.5% 8.0% 8.8% 9.6% 10.1% 9.6% 11.3% 9.8% 7.0% 6.3% 2.4%
Justin Skene 16.4% 13.9% 14.8% 13.5% 10.4% 10.1% 7.6% 6.0% 4.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%
Meredith Moore 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 4.3% 4.5% 4.7% 6.8% 6.6% 9.3% 13.4% 18.0% 23.5%
Peter Grumbling 4.5% 5.9% 5.4% 7.1% 7.3% 7.5% 7.8% 9.5% 11.8% 13.2% 12.1% 7.7%
Conall Lynch 1.3% 1.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 3.5% 4.2% 5.3% 6.5% 11.2% 17.9% 40.6%
Noah Troyer 3.4% 4.0% 5.1% 5.7% 5.1% 6.5% 7.4% 10.8% 11.6% 13.2% 15.7% 11.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.