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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands2.77+3.25vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego2.89+1.99vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.49+2.00vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.64-0.45vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.14-0.22vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.81-1.25vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.77+0.52vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.83-3.34vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine1.35-2.86vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.49-1.80vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine1.71-6.15vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.83-4.41vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California0.78-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.25California State University Channel Islands2.770.2%1st Place
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3.99University of California at San Diego2.890.2%1st Place
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5.0University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.1%1st Place
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4.55University of Southern California2.640.2%1st Place
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5.78University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.1%1st Place
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6.75University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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9.52Arizona State University0.770.0%1st Place
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6.66University of California at Los Angeles1.830.1%1st Place
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8.14University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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10.2University of California at San Diego0.490.0%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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9.59University of California at Los Angeles0.830.0%1st Place
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9.73University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Dair | 16.5% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Morris | 18.3% | 16.3% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Cobi Allen | 10.3% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 15.2% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Ian Stokes | 9.5% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Steven Cassingham | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 18.3% | 18.3% |
| Emelia Pelliccio | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 1.3% |
| Nicholas Weis | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 7.4% |
| Joseph McArdle | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 28.7% |
| Samuel Heller | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Nora Brackbill | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 17.9% | 18.7% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 16.5% | 20.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.