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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.97+4.78vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.40+2.34vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.51+3.86vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University2.10+1.28vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.42+2.14vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.07+2.34vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.73-3.36vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.84-1.75vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.69-2.42vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.14+0.93vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.24-0.16vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan-0.64+0.97vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.45-3.01vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-0.38-1.66vs Predicted
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15Tufts University0.80-5.73vs Predicted
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16University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.55-0.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.78Boston College1.978.5%1st Place
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4.34Roger Williams University2.4016.5%1st Place
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6.86Tufts University1.517.3%1st Place
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5.28Jacksonville University2.1011.7%1st Place
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7.14University of Rhode Island1.425.8%1st Place
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8.34Boston University1.073.9%1st Place
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3.64Brown University2.7320.5%1st Place
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6.25Bowdoin College1.848.1%1st Place
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6.58Brown University1.698.2%1st Place
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10.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.141.6%1st Place
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10.84University of Vermont0.241.4%1st Place
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12.97University of Michigan-0.640.5%1st Place
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9.99Northeastern University0.452.7%1st Place
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12.34University of New Hampshire-0.380.6%1st Place
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9.27Tufts University0.802.6%1st Place
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15.47University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.550.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 16.5% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Porter Bell | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 20.5% | 19.0% | 16.6% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Russler | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McNamara | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Horne | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 16.1% | 12.2% | 1.7% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 16.8% | 14.6% | 10.2% | 1.5% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 18.6% | 33.3% | 9.2% |
| Zachary Klusky | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 5.8% | 0.6% |
| Sean Lund | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 19.3% | 24.4% | 5.9% |
| Blake Vogel | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Javi Muliro | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 8.9% | 80.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.