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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.40+3.32vs Predicted
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2Boston College1.97+3.77vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.10+2.18vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.42+3.24vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.51+2.06vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan-0.64+6.90vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.07+1.37vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.84-1.55vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.73-5.22vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.80-0.95vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.69-4.68vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University0.45-2.00vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.14-2.03vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.24-3.24vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.38-2.67vs Predicted
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16University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.55-0.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.32Roger Williams University2.4016.4%1st Place
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5.77Boston College1.979.6%1st Place
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5.18Jacksonville University2.1010.9%1st Place
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7.24University of Rhode Island1.426.0%1st Place
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7.06Tufts University1.515.9%1st Place
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12.9University of Michigan-0.641.1%1st Place
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8.37Boston University1.074.6%1st Place
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6.45Bowdoin College1.846.8%1st Place
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3.78Brown University2.7321.1%1st Place
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9.05Tufts University0.803.0%1st Place
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6.32Brown University1.698.2%1st Place
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10.0Northeastern University0.452.8%1st Place
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10.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.141.6%1st Place
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10.76University of Vermont0.241.3%1st Place
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12.33University of New Hampshire-0.380.8%1st Place
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15.5University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.550.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pfrang | 16.4% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 9.6% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 10.9% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Clark Morris | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 17.0% | 32.8% | 9.1% |
| Porter Bell | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Russler | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 21.1% | 17.6% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Vogel | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 0.3% |
| Katherine McNamara | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Klusky | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 0.9% |
| Alexander Horne | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 11.2% | 1.8% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 10.0% | 1.5% |
| Sean Lund | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 20.8% | 25.0% | 5.1% |
| Javi Muliro | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 8.7% | 81.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.