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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+2.17vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.58+1.61vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.70+2.73vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.99+0.87vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.15+2.23vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College1.18+1.42vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.17+0.35vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.51+1.55vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.75-0.28vs Predicted
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10Brown University-0.04+1.28vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University-0.58+1.33vs Predicted
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12Boston University0.56-2.85vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-0.82+0.22vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.05-6.43vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.44-3.08vs Predicted
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16University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.70-3.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.17Roger Williams University2.6825.8%1st Place
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3.61Boston College2.5819.7%1st Place
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5.73Jacksonville University1.709.6%1st Place
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4.87Brown University1.9912.3%1st Place
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7.23Tufts University1.155.2%1st Place
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7.42Bowdoin College1.185.0%1st Place
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7.35University of Vermont1.174.4%1st Place
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9.55Tufts University0.511.8%1st Place
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8.72Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.753.1%1st Place
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11.28Brown University-0.041.1%1st Place
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12.33Northeastern University-0.581.0%1st Place
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9.15Boston University0.563.2%1st Place
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13.22University of New Hampshire-0.820.7%1st Place
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7.57University of Rhode Island1.055.1%1st Place
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11.92University of Michigan-0.441.1%1st Place
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12.88University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.700.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 25.8% | 20.8% | 16.8% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 19.7% | 19.7% | 17.2% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 12.3% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Hubbard | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Danielson | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| UVM Catamounts | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Annecy Kagan | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 1.6% |
| Brooke Barry | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Caroline Keeffe-Jones | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 8.4% |
| Benjamin Wilkinson | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 19.1% |
| Gavin Monaghan | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Jake Lacoche | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 19.9% | 29.3% |
| Olin Guck | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Glen Warren | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 15.9% | 14.8% |
| Austin Packard | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 19.1% | 23.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.