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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington2.87+2.05vs Predicted
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2University of Oregon2.51+1.65vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University1.94+2.16vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University1.49+2.21vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.58+0.83vs Predicted
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6University of Washington1.69-0.35vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz1.10-0.15vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University1.88-2.99vs Predicted
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9University of Puget Sound0.55-0.71vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles0.64-5.08vs Predicted
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15University of Victoria0.40-6.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.05University of Washington2.870.3%1st Place
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3.65University of Oregon2.510.2%1st Place
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5.16Northwestern University1.940.1%1st Place
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6.21Western Washington University1.490.1%1st Place
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5.83University of California at Santa Barbara1.580.1%1st Place
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5.65University of Washington1.690.1%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.1%1st Place
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5.01Western Washington University1.880.1%1st Place
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8.29University of Puget Sound0.550.0%1st Place
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7.92University of California at Los Angeles0.640.0%1st Place
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8.37University of Victoria0.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glen Stellmacher | 25.9% | 21.1% | 17.0% | 14.0% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Philip Gordon | 19.0% | 20.2% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Teno | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Nelson | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 5.0% |
| Shea Artis | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| Connor Bescos | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 9.7% |
| Erika Vranizan | 10.7% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| John Elam | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 18.7% | 26.9% |
| Eric Du | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 19.4% | 20.6% |
| Meigan Blunt | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 18.4% | 28.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.