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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.38+3.51vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.65+1.87vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.27-0.18vs Predicted
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4Santa Clara University-0.18+6.36vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy2.22-0.02vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.06-2.75vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.27+2.13vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay1.63-1.84vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.40-2.20vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.34-0.71vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.50-2.10vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.36-1.31vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.33-2.50vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University-0.18-3.64vs Predicted
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15University of Oregon-3.10-1.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51California Poly Maritime Academy2.380.1%1st Place
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3.87Stanford University2.650.2%1st Place
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2.82Stanford University3.270.3%1st Place
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10.36Santa Clara University-0.180.0%1st Place
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4.98California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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3.25Stanford University3.060.2%1st Place
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9.13University of California at Santa Cruz0.270.0%1st Place
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6.16California State University Monterey Bay1.630.1%1st Place
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6.8University of California at Berkeley1.400.0%1st Place
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9.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.340.0%1st Place
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8.9California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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10.69University of California at Davis-0.360.0%1st Place
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10.5University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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10.36Santa Clara University-0.180.0%1st Place
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13.73University of Oregon-3.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Lamb | 9.9% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Ortel | 15.9% | 15.6% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 14.5% | 10.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Mace | 27.5% | 24.2% | 17.1% | 13.5% | 9.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Hall | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 20.2% | 19.8% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Doyle | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yuki Yoshiyasu | 21.9% | 20.3% | 18.8% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kimberley Cohan | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 7.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 6.3% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Goldberg | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Petersen | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Wilkerson | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 16.8% | 17.5% | 26.1% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Keefe | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 20.3% | 23.9% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Hall | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 20.2% | 19.8% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Jamie Wai | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 5.2% | 89.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.