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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.16+2.16vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+2.98vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.86+3.25vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.81+2.35vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.39-0.23vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.22-0.82vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida3.29-2.18vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College2.90-2.19vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.68-2.43vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University0.51+0.18vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.94-3.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.16St. Mary's College of Maryland4.160.2%1st Place
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4.98Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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6.25College of Charleston2.860.1%1st Place
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6.35Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
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4.77Old Dominion University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.18College of Charleston3.220.1%1st Place
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4.82University of South Florida3.290.1%1st Place
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5.81Eckerd College2.900.1%1st Place
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6.57U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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10.18Northwestern University0.510.0%1st Place
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7.93University of Wisconsin1.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Morgan Watters | 24.8% | 21.3% | 15.5% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emily Billing | 10.7% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Kathryn Metscher | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 2.5% |
| Lauren Burke | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 3.1% |
| Morgan Wilson | 13.0% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 0.6% |
| Corey Hall | 9.4% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 0.9% |
| Abby Featherstone | 12.1% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 0.4% |
| Emilie Mademann | 8.4% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% |
| Sara Burke | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 4.9% |
| Francesca Ferrero | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 10.7% | 72.7% |
| Mary Cummins | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 28.6% | 12.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.