Race 1A

short-beach-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Rebecca Jackson 15.0% 15.8% 15.2% 13.8% 13.0% 9.5% 7.9% 5.9% 1.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Mark Towill 33.1% 24.0% 17.8% 10.5% 6.1% 4.8% 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Altreuter 7.2% 9.7% 12.0% 12.1% 11.0% 13.4% 13.4% 8.1% 6.7% 4.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2%
T. Max Bulger 8.4% 8.7% 10.3% 14.8% 12.8% 11.6% 9.4% 10.7% 7.4% 3.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2%
Genoa Warner 12.6% 14.8% 13.8% 12.2% 12.2% 12.4% 9.3% 6.2% 3.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
John Vrolyk 8.7% 8.4% 10.3% 10.2% 12.2% 13.0% 10.7% 8.9% 9.3% 5.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Nathan Stevens 3.8% 3.3% 3.7% 6.2% 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 12.0% 13.7% 14.2% 13.7% 8.0% 1.5%
Jacob Tronaas 4.1% 6.3% 5.2% 6.1% 7.4% 9.3% 11.6% 13.4% 12.9% 11.4% 7.5% 4.4% 0.4%
Thomas Chronert 3.6% 4.7% 4.2% 6.9% 7.3% 7.3% 12.8% 12.0% 13.2% 13.2% 8.3% 5.6% 0.9%
Brennen Drysdale 1.2% 1.9% 3.3% 2.4% 3.3% 4.5% 5.1% 7.6% 11.5% 14.5% 18.6% 17.8% 8.3%
Amanda Keshian 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 3.5% 2.9% 5.0% 5.6% 7.4% 11.5% 19.7% 25.4% 14.5%
Douglas Young 1.1% 1.1% 2.9% 2.7% 3.3% 3.9% 5.5% 5.9% 9.1% 15.2% 17.8% 21.7% 9.8%
Ben Dexter 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.8% 2.5% 2.8% 3.4% 7.7% 15.5% 64.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.