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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.65+4.93vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.74+3.71vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston4.25+1.15vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.84+5.01vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+3.99vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+5.66vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University3.36+0.08vs Predicted
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8Wesleyan University2.71+1.31vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.92-0.15vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University2.46-0.72vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.38-1.25vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin3.36-5.97vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.23-6.39vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College2.91-6.19vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida3.00-7.60vs Predicted
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17Clemson University0.49-1.36vs Predicted
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18Georgia Institute of Technology1.40-4.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.93College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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5.71U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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4.15College of Charleston4.250.2%1st Place
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9.01Georgetown University2.840.0%1st Place
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8.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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11.66University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.0%1st Place
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7.08Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
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9.31Wesleyan University2.710.0%1st Place
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8.85Old Dominion University2.920.0%1st Place
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10.28Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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10.75George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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7.03University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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7.61Stanford University3.230.1%1st Place
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8.81Eckerd College2.910.0%1st Place
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8.4University of South Florida3.000.1%1st Place
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15.64Clemson University0.490.0%1st Place
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13.78Georgia Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reynolds | 12.3% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Ramming | 19.0% | 15.3% | 14.5% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Schalka | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 0.3% |
| Bradley Milliken | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 1.3% |
| Ian Stokes | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 5.9% |
| Kyle Carney | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| John McGlynn | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 0.9% |
| Zach Runci | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 2.3% |
| Ian Connors | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 3.1% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Carolyn Ortel | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Kaye Siemers | 3.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Paul Perry | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Sean Osler | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 15.5% | 62.0% |
| John Reddaway | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 27.1% | 21.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.