Race 2A

short-beach-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

84.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mark Towill 31.5% 25.0% 17.4% 10.9% 7.8% 4.1% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Altreuter 8.3% 8.5% 11.7% 13.1% 11.7% 13.0% 10.5% 9.2% 8.1% 3.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Rebecca Jackson 13.8% 16.7% 15.3% 13.2% 13.1% 11.2% 7.7% 5.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Genoa Warner 12.7% 12.2% 15.3% 13.2% 12.4% 10.6% 10.0% 6.5% 3.8% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
T. Max Bulger 9.6% 9.4% 12.3% 10.8% 11.5% 12.0% 11.9% 9.2% 7.3% 3.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1%
John Vrolyk 8.1% 10.1% 9.3% 12.0% 12.1% 11.6% 10.9% 9.6% 7.3% 5.6% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Nathan Stevens 4.3% 2.9% 4.1% 5.4% 6.2% 7.1% 8.0% 11.8% 13.0% 15.1% 12.8% 7.6% 1.7%
Brennen Drysdale 1.6% 2.4% 1.5% 3.8% 2.9% 3.8% 5.7% 8.0% 10.5% 13.2% 20.3% 20.1% 6.2%
Thomas Chronert 3.3% 5.4% 3.7% 6.5% 7.0% 8.5% 11.7% 12.2% 13.8% 11.8% 10.1% 4.9% 1.1%
Jacob Tronaas 4.7% 4.4% 5.6% 6.1% 8.6% 10.4% 10.8% 11.9% 12.5% 11.4% 8.1% 3.7% 1.8%
Douglas Young 1.1% 1.5% 2.4% 2.5% 4.1% 4.0% 5.5% 8.0% 11.2% 16.1% 16.9% 18.7% 8.0%
Amanda Keshian 0.6% 1.1% 1.3% 2.1% 1.7% 2.9% 3.8% 6.1% 6.4% 11.4% 17.3% 27.7% 17.6%
Ben Dexter 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.8% 1.4% 3.4% 4.0% 7.7% 15.5% 63.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.