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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+8.54vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.81+7.10vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.93vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.89+6.53vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.25+2.45vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.51+0.93vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-1.12vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.82+0.70vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.66+2.17vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.43-0.01vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.42-4.04vs Predicted
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12Princeton University1.87-0.89vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.21-1.27vs Predicted
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14Hampton University1.47-2.98vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.38-8.37vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University2.40-9.45vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia0.79-4.31vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-1.07-0.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.8%1st Place
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9.1Old Dominion University1.815.8%1st Place
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7.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.9%1st Place
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10.53Fordham University1.894.0%1st Place
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7.45U. S. Naval Academy2.258.2%1st Place
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6.93SUNY Maritime College2.519.3%1st Place
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5.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6512.7%1st Place
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8.7George Washington University1.825.1%1st Place
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11.17Washington College1.662.6%1st Place
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9.99Webb Institute1.433.6%1st Place
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6.96University of Pennsylvania2.428.5%1st Place
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11.11Princeton University1.873.0%1st Place
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11.73Christopher Newport University1.212.5%1st Place
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11.02Hampton University1.473.2%1st Place
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6.63Cornell University2.389.0%1st Place
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6.55Georgetown University2.409.6%1st Place
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12.69University of Virginia0.792.1%1st Place
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17.08Rochester Institute of Technology-1.070.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Will Murray | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 12.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 2.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 1.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 2.1% |
| Brian Fox | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 3.4% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 2.5% |
| Hayden Earl | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Montague | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 20.7% | 6.4% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 7.8% | 78.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.