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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.42+5.89vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.25+5.45vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.51+3.86vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+5.68vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.88vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.38+0.66vs Predicted
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7Washington College1.66+4.09vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-2.08vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.82-0.35vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.89+0.40vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.75-4.71vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia0.79+0.77vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.81-3.65vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.21-2.33vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.87-3.75vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.43-6.15vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.47-5.76vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-1.07-0.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.89University of Pennsylvania2.4210.1%1st Place
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7.45U. S. Naval Academy2.256.9%1st Place
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6.86SUNY Maritime College2.518.3%1st Place
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9.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.0%1st Place
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7.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.6%1st Place
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6.66Cornell University2.389.6%1st Place
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11.09Washington College1.662.9%1st Place
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5.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6512.1%1st Place
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8.65George Washington University1.826.0%1st Place
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10.4Fordham University1.894.2%1st Place
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6.29Georgetown University2.759.0%1st Place
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12.77University of Virginia0.791.8%1st Place
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9.35Old Dominion University1.815.3%1st Place
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11.67Christopher Newport University1.212.3%1st Place
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11.25Princeton University1.872.9%1st Place
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9.85Webb Institute1.434.9%1st Place
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11.24Hampton University1.472.9%1st Place
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17.12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.070.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Gavin McJones | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
| Will Murray | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Hayden Earl | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 2.8% |
| Leo Boucher | 12.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 1.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Montague | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 18.9% | 6.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 0.4% |
| Brian Fox | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 3.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 2.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 0.9% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 2.4% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 8.5% | 77.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.