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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.51+5.93vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.43+7.77vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.81+6.32vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+1.83vs Predicted
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5Washington College1.66+6.07vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.82+3.00vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.75-0.89vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.42-0.88vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.00vs Predicted
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10Princeton University1.87+1.31vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.25-3.64vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.38-5.40vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.89-2.39vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia0.79-1.32vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-5.25vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.21-4.37vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.47-6.12vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-1.07-0.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.93SUNY Maritime College2.517.7%1st Place
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9.77Webb Institute1.434.9%1st Place
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9.32Old Dominion University1.814.7%1st Place
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5.83St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6512.0%1st Place
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11.07Washington College1.663.0%1st Place
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9.0George Washington University1.824.8%1st Place
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6.11Georgetown University2.7511.7%1st Place
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7.12University of Pennsylvania2.427.8%1st Place
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8.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.9%1st Place
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11.31Princeton University1.873.2%1st Place
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7.36U. S. Naval Academy2.258.1%1st Place
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6.6Cornell University2.3810.5%1st Place
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10.61Fordham University1.892.6%1st Place
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12.68University of Virginia0.792.5%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.0%1st Place
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11.63Christopher Newport University1.212.4%1st Place
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10.88Hampton University1.473.1%1st Place
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17.03Rochester Institute of Technology-1.070.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Leo Boucher | 12.0% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 2.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 2.4% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 10.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 1.9% |
| Andrew Montague | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 19.8% | 6.5% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Brian Fox | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 3.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 2.1% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 7.6% | 77.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.