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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+5.04vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.51+4.84vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.97vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.25+3.20vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38+1.68vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.12vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.43+2.78vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.75-1.81vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.66+2.27vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.82-1.04vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.81-1.67vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.89-1.34vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.47-1.93vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.87-2.79vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.21-3.55vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia0.79-3.31vs Predicted
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17Rochester Institute of Technology-1.07+0.02vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-8.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6511.5%1st Place
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6.84SUNY Maritime College2.519.6%1st Place
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6.97University of Pennsylvania2.428.6%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Naval Academy2.258.5%1st Place
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6.68Cornell University2.388.1%1st Place
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8.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.2%1st Place
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9.78Webb Institute1.434.7%1st Place
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6.19Georgetown University2.7511.1%1st Place
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11.27Washington College1.662.9%1st Place
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8.96George Washington University1.825.7%1st Place
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9.33Old Dominion University1.814.9%1st Place
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10.66Fordham University1.893.5%1st Place
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11.07Hampton University1.473.1%1st Place
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11.21Princeton University1.872.9%1st Place
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11.45Christopher Newport University1.212.5%1st Place
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12.69University of Virginia0.792.1%1st Place
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17.02Rochester Institute of Technology-1.070.3%1st Place
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9.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 11.5% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 8.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 2.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 1.6% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 2.3% |
| Brian Fox | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 2.9% |
| Andrew Montague | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 20.5% | 6.0% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 7.2% | 78.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.