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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.42+4.58vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+6.39vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.48+9.64vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+3.75vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.52vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.42+1.64vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.68+0.58vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.30+1.72vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.62-0.70vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-4.86vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.59-2.62vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.27-2.66vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.72-2.52vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+1.45vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-0.34-0.15vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.59-8.25vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.27-3.95vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.19-4.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58Georgetown University2.4212.2%1st Place
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8.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.555.7%1st Place
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12.64Christopher Newport University0.481.8%1st Place
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7.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.1%1st Place
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5.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.4%1st Place
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7.64SUNY Maritime College0.426.2%1st Place
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7.58Cornell University1.687.9%1st Place
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9.72Webb Institute1.303.8%1st Place
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8.3Fordham University1.625.7%1st Place
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5.14U. S. Naval Academy2.6014.0%1st Place
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8.38Old Dominion University1.594.9%1st Place
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9.34George Washington University1.274.8%1st Place
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10.48Hampton University0.723.2%1st Place
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15.45Rochester Institute of Technology-0.640.8%1st Place
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14.85University of Virginia-0.340.8%1st Place
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7.75University of Pennsylvania1.596.8%1st Place
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13.05Princeton University0.272.1%1st Place
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13.42Washington College0.191.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Menditto | 12.2% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| David Grace | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 6.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.4% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 14.0% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 41.6% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 13.5% | 22.6% | 25.6% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 16.8% | 12.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.