← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.31vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University2.42+3.54vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.59vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania1.90+3.46vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University1.27+4.54vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College0.42+1.47vs Predicted
-
7Cornell University1.68+0.86vs Predicted
-
8Webb Institute1.30+2.04vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.30vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University1.59-1.36vs Predicted
-
11Hampton University0.72-0.37vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-3.27vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University1.62-4.66vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University0.84-2.80vs Predicted
-
15Christopher Newport University0.48-2.48vs Predicted
-
16Washington College0.19-2.37vs Predicted
-
17University of Virginia-0.34-2.02vs Predicted
-
18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-2.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.31U. S. Naval Academy2.6013.6%1st Place
-
5.54Georgetown University2.4212.6%1st Place
-
5.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.2%1st Place
-
7.46University of Pennsylvania1.907.0%1st Place
-
9.54George Washington University1.274.7%1st Place
-
7.47SUNY Maritime College0.427.2%1st Place
-
7.86Cornell University1.685.7%1st Place
-
10.04Webb Institute1.303.2%1st Place
-
7.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.0%1st Place
-
8.64Old Dominion University1.595.5%1st Place
-
10.63Hampton University0.723.4%1st Place
-
8.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.554.3%1st Place
-
8.34Fordham University1.626.7%1st Place
-
11.2Princeton University0.842.7%1st Place
-
12.52Christopher Newport University0.482.1%1st Place
-
13.63Washington College0.191.7%1st Place
-
14.98University of Virginia-0.340.8%1st Place
-
15.8Rochester Institute of Technology-0.640.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 13.6% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Asher Green | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 2.6% |
| David Grace | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 7.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 19.1% | 13.6% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 22.2% | 28.3% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 10.3% | 20.8% | 43.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.