Race 3A

short-beach-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Rebecca Jackson 15.1% 15.4% 15.4% 14.0% 12.1% 10.8% 8.9% 3.7% 2.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Mark Towill 32.3% 24.8% 18.0% 11.3% 6.0% 3.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
James Altreuter 7.4% 8.7% 13.6% 10.5% 12.0% 12.8% 13.3% 8.8% 7.1% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Thomas Chronert 3.6% 3.9% 4.7% 6.5% 8.9% 8.6% 9.2% 12.7% 14.2% 12.4% 8.8% 5.4% 1.1%
Genoa Warner 13.1% 14.9% 12.7% 13.5% 13.5% 10.6% 8.1% 7.0% 3.5% 1.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Brennen Drysdale 1.2% 1.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.7% 5.2% 8.5% 10.8% 13.6% 21.7% 17.5% 6.6%
John Vrolyk 9.1% 9.6% 8.8% 10.4% 13.2% 13.5% 9.6% 9.7% 8.3% 5.0% 1.3% 1.4% 0.1%
T. Max Bulger 8.8% 10.7% 10.3% 13.9% 11.1% 12.8% 11.2% 9.8% 6.0% 3.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Jacob Tronaas 4.3% 4.0% 5.5% 7.2% 7.5% 8.4% 11.6% 13.2% 14.1% 10.6% 8.6% 4.4% 0.6%
Nathan Stevens 3.0% 3.7% 4.3% 4.5% 6.5% 6.7% 9.9% 10.2% 12.6% 16.5% 11.8% 8.0% 2.3%
Amanda Keshian 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 2.2% 2.6% 3.6% 3.8% 6.1% 6.9% 13.9% 17.6% 26.5% 14.1%
Ben Dexter 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 3.0% 4.4% 7.9% 14.2% 63.8%
Douglas Young 1.2% 1.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 3.8% 5.4% 7.6% 10.3% 13.2% 17.2% 21.8% 11.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.