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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.30+8.82vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.68+5.75vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.62+5.52vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.90+3.52vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.73vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.42-0.28vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+1.50vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.51vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.26vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-4.83vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.27-1.42vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia0.02+2.61vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.59-4.48vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.84-2.61vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.48-2.19vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.72-5.60vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.19-3.25vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.82Webb Institute1.304.0%1st Place
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7.75Cornell University1.686.5%1st Place
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8.52Fordham University1.625.6%1st Place
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7.52University of Pennsylvania1.907.4%1st Place
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7.73SUNY Maritime College1.885.9%1st Place
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5.72Georgetown University2.4212.2%1st Place
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8.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.555.5%1st Place
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5.49St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.8%1st Place
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7.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.0%1st Place
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5.17U. S. Naval Academy2.6013.2%1st Place
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9.58George Washington University1.274.2%1st Place
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14.61University of Virginia0.020.8%1st Place
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8.52Old Dominion University1.595.3%1st Place
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11.39Princeton University0.842.0%1st Place
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12.81Christopher Newport University0.481.9%1st Place
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10.4Hampton University0.724.2%1st Place
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13.75Washington College0.191.2%1st Place
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15.99Rochester Institute of Technology-0.640.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everett Botwinick | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Enzo Menditto | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 13.2% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Connor Lothrop | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Asher Green | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| David Grace | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 8.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 18.9% | 13.7% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 11.2% | 17.9% | 48.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.